Written By Kwame Asiedu - It is said "facts are sacred, comments are free." This statement seems to have little relevance when it comes to the politics of Ghana, even when the writing is clearly on the wall, people will argue against the obvious.
This morning, I will make the same argument that dwindling votes in any election is a positive indicator of political fortune. I shall apply this hypothesis to a few political figures to make my point.
In 2000 following the Swedru declaration, JEA Mills was selected in defiance of internal party democracy to become the flag bearer of the NDC. In the ensuing elections the same year he polled 44.8% of the total vote against J. A Kufuor's 48.4%, in the runoff election Mills was pegged back to 42.6%.
In the 2004 elections Mills held his own and polled a similar percentage (44.64%) to the first round election in 2000. In 2008 Mills had 47.9% in the first round, an appreciation of 3.2% from the 2000 and 2004 performance and won the runoff with 50.23% of the total votes cast (an appreciation of 7.63% from the second round of 2000).
It is fact that Mills was third time lucky and also fact that his voters appeal improved over the 8years that he sought the highest office of the land.
A look at Alan Kyeremanteng's electoral fortunes produces a different picture. In 2008 he sought to lead the NPP and polled 32.30% of the total votes at their national delegate's congress, placing second to Nana Akuffo Addo. He pulled out and prevented a second round vote hence handing the flag bearer slot to Akuffo Addo.
In 2010 he made a second presidential attempt this time polling 20.40% of the total votes cast by party delegates, a decline of 12% from 2008. In 2014 Alan polled 7.95% at the special delegate's elections a further decline of 12.5% from the 2010 results.
It is fact that Alan's electoral appeal has declined by 24.4% over the 6 year period he has sort to lead the NPP, irrespective of the method of voting used by the party.
Does this trend not send a clear message? It is said that "every gun makes its own tune" and that one should take a bow when the applause is loudest. If I were Alan this will be the time to bid farewell to my presidential ambitions. Floating voter appeal or not the statistics indicate that he will never become flag bearer of the NPP.
With regards to Nana Akuffo Addo, in the 2008 election he placed first in round one with 49.13% of the total votes but lost to JEA Mills in the runoff polling 49.77%, though he had a marginal appreciation (0.64%) in electoral appeal.
In 2012 Nana polled 47.74% of the total votes losing to John Mahama in the first round, his electoral appeal declining by 2% from the results of 2008.
A look at the NPP primaries for Nana are as follows in 1998 he polled 31.6%, ten years later in 2008 he polled 47.96% of the votes, 2010, 77.92% and 2014, 80.78%.
It is fact that while Nana's popularity has soured in the NPP over the 16 years that he has at different times sought to be flag bearer; his electoral appeal has dwindled marginally at a notational level.
Would I be wrong in applying the same argument I applied to Alan in Nana's case? Is it not consistent to do so? Why is it that the political commentators sympathetic to Nana are happy to make these analogies in Alan's case but argue differently when Nana's statistics are presented to them?
After all "what is sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander." Or is it that in Nana's case the statistical null hypothesis applies and correlations are thrown to the dogs?
Yes, statistics and figures excite me and often give me a violent academic orgasm; in short they stimulate my brain.
Sadly statistics often don't lie. If those in the Alan camp continue with the vague and statistically nonsensical argument that the number of special voters is insignificant compared with the delegates for the October 18th poll, I humbly ask have they heard of the phrase "statistical sampling?" Do they realize that if properly done and with the right sample size, predictions form a statistical sample are by and large accurate?
Likewise if the acolytes of Nana Addo come up with the third time lucky argument, I plead, in the case of JA Kufuor his party and national electoral appeal improved statistically from 1992 when he lost to Adu Boahene, through 1996 when he defeated Adu Boahene but lost to Rawlings, till 2000 when he defeated Mills over two rounds of Elections.
What even tickles my fancy is the NDC apologist who have suddenly become cheer leaders of Alan, listening to them make mockery of themselves and justifying why he is a better sell for the NPP is often comical.
Who in his right mind will allow his opponent to help pick his best candidate in any competitive endeavor? On what planet do some Ghanaian politicians live?
Truth is Nana Addo will definitely be flag bearer of the NPP come 18th October, would he become president of Ghana come 8th December 2016? From the statistical stand point in my view the jury is out.
My advice to Nana is, as William Shakespeare said "Coins always make sounds but currency notes are always silent, so when your value increases keep quiet....!" Sometimes in my view it is the commentary and or behavior of his acolytes that damage his national political appeal.